If you are from Singapore, then the recent SMRT disruption would be familiar news. In fact, the SMRT disruptions and the history of such disruptions have become so common place that it is fast becoming the norm.
However, major disruptions of the magnitude that affected more than 250,000 commuters are more unusual, though not new.
Back in 2011, two major disruptions occurred within a couple of days of each other, affecting tens of thousands of commuters, leading to a public inquiry. (Read the press release from the public inquiry).
While complains such as "not well-managed", "no clear instructions" where to locate the free shuttle buses, were reported, I think overall, the situation was managed pretty well. If you notice the timeline of events, the free shuttle bus services were activated about an hour and a half after the first incident occurred, and probably after they realised this was going to be a system wide problem.
"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy" is a brilliant quote attributed to German military strategist Helmuth von Moltke.
The unexpected can happen.
Who would have expected two major train lines to break down at the same time on the same day and during peak hour?
But then again, why wouldn't you expect it?
In fact, "black swan" events do occur, and are fairly prevalent in history
It would be naive, and intellectually complacent, to think that the worst cannot happen.
In the video above, Nassim talks about the most vicious form called "retrospective distortion", where we can see a crisis coming before it occurs (3.04min into the video).
So can we predict and forecast "black swan" events? My take on it is that its probably very difficult to accurately predict such events.
But, there are tools and methods one can apply. One tool I can recommend is the Known Unknowns Matrix.
In each quadrant, list down events or information that you are aware of or understand. The most difficult quadrant is the "unknown, unknowns", which might require some research, and mental flexibility to connect different ideas and themes you observe around you that could pose a risk or crisis in the works.
4. Communicate, Communicate, and Communicate More...
Over communicate during a crisis. Every bit of information you release will help. Leverage on technology. A friend once shared that he uses Watsapp to keep his group or team informed of updates. I have personally found Watsapp to be a powerful internal communication tool to keep the team aligned and updated, though I recommend some rules in the use because it can very quickly become overloaded with messages.
During a crisis, release regular communication down the line, as frequently as possible. In fact, designate someone to be the "comms person", whose job is to ensure everyone in the team is made aware of updates.
You probably have had your share of crisis to respond to and have your way of handling them. But sometimes, its good to be reminded of the basics.
If you have other tips or ways to handle a crisis, do share them in the comments.
Taking one little step at a time,
Aslam Sardar
However, major disruptions of the magnitude that affected more than 250,000 commuters are more unusual, though not new.
Back in 2011, two major disruptions occurred within a couple of days of each other, affecting tens of thousands of commuters, leading to a public inquiry. (Read the press release from the public inquiry).
While complains such as "not well-managed", "no clear instructions" where to locate the free shuttle buses, were reported, I think overall, the situation was managed pretty well. If you notice the timeline of events, the free shuttle bus services were activated about an hour and a half after the first incident occurred, and probably after they realised this was going to be a system wide problem.
Press conferences were held soon after, and apologies came fast.
So let's give credit where credit is due.
If you are a manager, or a leader of team, running projects or keeping systems online, you will know what I mean when I say a crisis can happen, and the proverbial "shit can hit the fan".
So what can we do to get ready for such a day?
When a crisis occurs, it is quite natural for chaos, disorientation, and confusion to occur. Leaders who need to make the crucial decisions may not have enough information, and indecision could set in. Middle managers, will be caught in the middle because they have to give instructions while also await instructions from the top. Front liners are unsure what to do, and how to respond, because no clear information and direction is provided.
Below are 4 reminders:
1. Have a "crisis play book"
Everyone should be on the same page. They should be familiar with the same crisis "play book" (or manual).
Reinforce the play book with a simple quick reference guide (QRF) or "cheat sheet" that front line staff can refer to. Remember, they are in the front lines and have to handle the crisis immediately. They won't have time to read a "manual", so a simple quick guide can be useful. It should include immediate actions to take, key contacts, and how to communicate.
All levels of management should have such a "cheat sheet" so that everyone is aligned and everybody knows what everyone is expected to do.
2. Train....but Harder and Realistically
Training for a crisis is unlike the usual classroom style training. In a crisis, the emotions are different. Decisions need to be made quickly, feelings can run high, and the pressure can break personal relationships between colleagues. So the training cannot be the same run-of-the-mill classroom style training. Training for a crisis should be realistic, hard-hitting, and depending on the objective, even emotionally charged. In fact, train for a worst case scenario.
Role-playing from my experience is one of the best ways to transmit multiple learning elements. A well written role play should incorporate scripts that describe the "emotions" one should expect to respond to.
3. Expect the Unexpected
The unexpected can happen.
Who would have expected two major train lines to break down at the same time on the same day and during peak hour?
But then again, why wouldn't you expect it?
In fact, "black swan" events do occur, and are fairly prevalent in history
An except from Nassim Taleb, the author of "Black Swan"
It would be naive, and intellectually complacent, to think that the worst cannot happen.
In the video above, Nassim talks about the most vicious form called "retrospective distortion", where we can see a crisis coming before it occurs (3.04min into the video).
So can we predict and forecast "black swan" events? My take on it is that its probably very difficult to accurately predict such events.
But, there are tools and methods one can apply. One tool I can recommend is the Known Unknowns Matrix.
4. Communicate, Communicate, and Communicate More...
Over communicate during a crisis. Every bit of information you release will help. Leverage on technology. A friend once shared that he uses Watsapp to keep his group or team informed of updates. I have personally found Watsapp to be a powerful internal communication tool to keep the team aligned and updated, though I recommend some rules in the use because it can very quickly become overloaded with messages.
During a crisis, release regular communication down the line, as frequently as possible. In fact, designate someone to be the "comms person", whose job is to ensure everyone in the team is made aware of updates.
You probably have had your share of crisis to respond to and have your way of handling them. But sometimes, its good to be reminded of the basics.
If you have other tips or ways to handle a crisis, do share them in the comments.
Taking one little step at a time,
Aslam Sardar
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